Question Description: QUESTION 1
Within the Discussion Board area, write 400–600 words that respond to the following questions with your thoughts, ideas, and comments. This will be the foundation for future discussions by your classmates. Be substantive and clear, and use examples to reinforce your ideas.
Discuss the following topics:
• Provide a brief history of scenario planning in general.
• Describe an overview of the scenario planning process.
• Who is responsible for scenario planning within the organization?
• Provide a few examples of real scenario planning within corporations.
QUESTION 2.
Within the Discussion Board area, write 400–600 words that respond to the following questions with your thoughts, ideas, and comments. This will be the foundation for future discussions by your classmates. Be substantive and clear, and use examples to reinforce your ideas.
Discuss the following:
• What is the definition of scenario planning?
• Why is it important to organizations?
• How does it differ from the other methodologies for predicting future events?
QUESTION 3
Within the Discussion Board area, write 400–600 words that respond to the following questions with your thoughts, ideas, and comments. This will be the foundation for future discussions by your classmates. Be substantive and clear, and use examples to reinforce your ideas.
Discuss the following:
• What is a black swan event?
• Give 2 examples of black swan events throughout history.
• Are black swan events more likely today than they were 20 years ago? Why or why not?
Answer preview
The black swan events only become predictable after they have already happened and become explainable in hindsight. They are various Black Swan events throughout history, and this includes the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The dissolution of the Soviet Union was due to the political, economic, and ethical disintegration of the USSR. The decision to allow a multi-system party for elections and create a presidency for the union led to the decentralization of the communist control leading to a decentralization of the union. Another black swan event is the global financial recession of 2008 due to the housing market crash (Alam, 2018). The financial crisis took its toll on people and institutions around the world. Banks took undue risks with home loan assets, seeing their value drop as the US housing market collapsed. For the first time in decades, the home market in the United States began to lose value in 2006. Most banks were unconcerned about the risks and continued to buy mortgage-backed securities, which were very profitable at the time. As the real estate market
